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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to security guarantees: legally binding, that is, voted on and endorsed by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.