A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
